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Sunday, June 15, 2025

The 3.5% Rule

From France:
 
Thank you France
 
 
 "Non-violent protests are twice as likely to succeed as armed conflicts – and those engaging a threshold of 3.5% of the population have never failed to bring about change."

Really?

I didn’t know that. A blog reader suggested I look into the 3.5% rule, and I did.

Viola’, good news.

I didn’t walk in Eugene, Oregon’s No King’s Parade, on Saturday, but I, in my trusty pickup, crossed the bridge spanning the Willamette River to pick up my kids who did. Protestors lined the bridge, friendly waving, signs waving, people cheering, thumbs up upping. It was great. I was in a parade of cars.

Today, I found the 3.5% rule, which gave me hope. Way to go, Thank you, dear reader!

“The “3.5 rule” is a set of conclusions from research conducted by Erica Chenoweth and Matthew Stephan, authors of “Why Civil Resistance Works.” They reviewed historical data and found support for the notion that a government could not successfully withstand a challenge when 3.5% of its population actively mobilized against it.”

--Richard Seifman, June 11, 2025, former World Bank Health Advisor and U,.s. Senior Foreign Service Officer.

 

Non-violent protests such as the No King March held yesterday, June 14, 2025, allows people who are empathetic to a cause to bring their voices to the table in a non-violent way. It also fosters solidarity among diverse groups.

When a government or establishment portrays demonstrators as violent or aggressive, riling them with tear gas or the military instead of letting local authorities handle a violent outbreak—which can happen when people get seriously riled, it tells the world this is serious--It is a desperate attempt to squelch dissent.

Remember the 50s’ and 60s’ when individuals such as Martin Luther King Jr. championed non-violent tactics such as boycotts, sit-ins, and marches. They were met with resistance too, but they persevered. They changed people’s opinions. When people coalesced behind their leadership, legislative change happened. The Civil Rights Act of 1964 came into effect.

The anti-apartheid movement in South Africa’s success, was mainly due to the non-violent strategies employed by Desmond Tutu and Nelson Mandela. Their approach built a domestic coalition and garnered international support. That pressured South African leadership to end Apartheid rule.

In India, Mahatma Gandhi led several peaceful protests that encompassed “Satyagraha,” a philosophy of non-violent resistance emphasizing truth and love force over violence.

Watching tanks roll by? Spending 45 million dollars to do it? “Peanuts,” said the President.

Hey, I like peanuts. The people could use a few.


  

From San Francisco:


 Cool